Small Area Estimation of Poverty Under Structural Change

Small area estimation is an important tool to produce estimates of poverty for regions with low or zero sample sizes. Estimates are typically obtained by combining a consumption survey reporting on and census providing the spatial disaggregation. This paper discusses updating method that produces up-to-date small when only dated more recent available predictors subject drift over time, situation commonly encountered in practice. Instead using variables explain survey, approach uses constructed from census. The proposed estimator has fewer data requirements weaker assumptions than common estimators. Applications simulated Brazil show overall good performance, but also imply importance examining practical challenges real-world applications.